Strategic Concept for Europeanizing Nuclear Deterrence Through Dual-Capable Missiles (warontherocks.com)

• France's dissuasion avancée doctrine lacks credibility for extended deterrence due to its all-or-nothing approach and refusal to participate in NATO Nuclear Planning Group.
• Ford's PUMA-C concept would develop a small nuclear warhead compatible with existing and planned European long-range missiles (e.g., Storm Shadow, ELSA), enabling flexible nuclear options.
• The proposal argues that asymmetric Russian dual-capable missile deployments make reciprocal Western capabilities less destabilizing than the status quo, and that the 'ubiquity' of missile assets would complicate preemption.

"Former U.S. Assistant Secretary Christopher Ford argues that France's new 'forward deterrence' doctrine cannot provide credible extended deterrence for NATO due to credibility, doctrinal rigidity, and limited capabilities. He proposes 'Potentially Ubiquitous Modular Aerial Capability' (PUMA-C), a concept to equip existing European long-range precision missiles with small nuclear warheads. This would give NATO flexible theater-level nuclear options to counter Russian coercive escalation, leveraging Europe's ongoing 'missile renaissance' to avoid developing bespoke nuclear delivery systems. The proposal aims to close the asymmetry in dual-capable missiles that currently favors Russia and China, though political and arms control hurdles remain."