Europe must combine conventional long-range strike capabilities with nuclear deterrence, ECFR analysis argues (ecfr.eu)

• NATO summit in Ankara (7-8 July 2026) faces warnings of Russian provocation.
• ECFR argues nuclear deterrence does not preclude major war; Europe must develop conventional deterrence.
• France's forward deterrence concept is politically significant but lacks practical capability to replace US umbrella.
• Russia may use hybrid attacks (missiles, drones) against NATO states supporting Ukraine, per Latvian intelligence.
• Recommended: combine European long-range strike capabilities with nuclear deterrence through coordinated doctrine.

"ECFR argues that Europe cannot rely solely on NATO's nuclear umbrella to deter Russian hybrid and conventional attacks. The Ukraine war shows high-intensity conflict can occur below the nuclear threshold. Europe should develop conventional long-range strike capabilities and coordinate deterrence among nuclear and non-nuclear states."