ECFR policy brief outlines 'Six Nos' conditions and 'swarm' tactics for EU-China systemic rivalry (ecfr.eu)

• EU faces unprecedented industrial pressure from Chinese overcapacity; trade surplus of $83 billion in Q1 2026.
• ECFR proposes six conditions for market access: 'Six Nos' for reciprocity, fair competition, diversification, security, transparency, and no threat enablers.
• Implementation via 'swarm' of existing tools (safeguards, FSR, IPI, ACI) rather than single high-visibility measures.
• Paper urges EU to use Chinese retaliation as an opportunity to activate stronger instruments like the Anti-Coercion Instrument.
• Calls for intra-EU coalitions and coordination with UK, Japan, Korea, India to scale impact.
• Warns that inaction will lock Europe into accelerated decline; costs of resilience are a correction of mispriced market risks.

"The European Council on Foreign Relations proposes a strategic framework for the EU's rivalry with China based on six access conditions (Six Nos) to the single market: no double standards, no rigged competition, no monopolies, no backdoors, no black boxes, no threat enablers. To overcome political inertia, the EU should deploy a 'swarm' of existing instruments (safeguards, subsidy investigations, procurement rules) rather than single large tariffs. The paper argues that China's economic practices and support for Russia necessitate a systemic response. It recommends building coalitions with like-minded partners and preparing for Chinese retaliation, which could be turned into an opportunity to strengthen EU instruments. The approach aims to restructure market incentives towards transparency and diversification."