ECFR Analysis: Europe Must Bolster Defense Amid Declining US Commitment (ecfr.eu)

• Europe now spends €150 billion more per year on defense than in 2014, but capability gaps persist.
• The brief recommends a 10-year plan to reduce reliance on US strategic enablers like air refueling and missile defense.
• Closer EU-NATO cooperation and a dedicated EU defense commissioner are proposed.

"A policy brief from the European Council on Foreign Relations argues that Europe must strengthen its defense capabilities as US support declines. The report identifies financial and capability shortfalls, recommending increased Ukraine aid, rebuilding mass and readiness, reducing dependency on US strategic enablers, and enhancing EU-NATO cooperation. The analysis draws on defense spending data and military capability inventories, emphasizing the need for a sustained, decade-long plan. Author Camille Grand warns that a second Trump presidency could accelerate US disengagement, but underlying trends make European self-reliance necessary regardless of the election outcome."