UK economy: Brexit trade-off assessed ten years after referendum (ukandeu.ac.uk)

• GDP several percentage points lower due to reduced trade and investment.
• Goods trade with EU down 10–15%; services sector faces new barriers.
• EU migration fell sharply but non-EU migration more than compensated.

"Ten years after the EU referendum, the UK economy is smaller than it would have been without Brexit, according to an analysis by UK in a Changing Europe. GDP is estimated to be several percentage points lower, primarily due to reduced trade intensity, lower investment, and productivity drag. Goods trade with the EU is down 10–15%, while services trade shows mixed results. Migration shifted from EU to non-EU sources. Regulatory autonomy gains have not materialized."