France expands nuclear arsenal, ends transparency, offers European partners advanced deterrence (warontherocks.com)

• Macron announced increase of nuclear warheads, end of transparency, launch of advanced deterrence framework in March 2026.
• Eight NATO allies joined; Franco-German nuclear steering group created; German forces to observe French 'Poker' exercise.
• Domestic political opposition from National Rally threatens longevity; institutionalization before 2027 election is key.

"French President Macron announced a major shift in nuclear policy in March 2026: increasing warheads, ending transparency on arsenal size, and launching 'advanced deterrence' allowing European partners to participate in French nuclear exercises and potentially host French dual-capable aircraft. Eight NATO allies have joined. A Franco-German nuclear steering group was established. The changes, designed as a hedge against potential US disengagement from NATO, face political risks from the 2027 French presidential election, where far-right National Rally opposes extending nuclear guarantees."