Restoring Strategic Deterrence via Escalation Credibility (hcss.nl)

• Hybrid operations as a deliberate strategic leverage tool.
• Failure of passive resilience to constrain Russian aggression.
• Requirement for active signaling and credible escalation potential.

"Alexander Mattelaer’s HCSS paper contends that defensive resilience is insufficient to deter Russia’s hybrid warfare. Moscow exploits NATO’s perceived risk aversion and its own nuclear advantage to conduct sub-threshold operations. The report argues that NATO must pivot from purely defensive measures to demonstrating credible escalation options, thereby challenging the Kremlin’s belief that it can manage risks better than the Alliance. By reinstating the fear of escalation in Russian decision-makers, NATO can re-establish strategic restraint and defend the Euro-Atlantic architecture."