Preparing for US Strategic Retrenchment in Europe (dgap.org)

• Shift toward US offshore balancing and homeland-centric defense.
• Potential transition of NATO leadership and Joint Force Commands to European control.
• Structural necessity for European self-reliance in defense enablers and logistics.

"The paper analyzes the shift toward a US 'restraint' strategy, driven by fiscal deficits and shifting political priorities. A realistic scenario suggests a significant US military drawdown from Europe by 2035, including the handover of NATO leadership to European allies. The authors argue that European sovereignty depends on building autonomous security architectures to mitigate the risks of an uncontrolled US fade-out. Europe must urgently address its reliance on US intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and heavy force assets to maintain regional stability in the absence of a US security guarantee."