Three Theories of Victory for European Defense Without the United States (legrandcontinent.eu)

• US disengagement from European conventional defense is a structural trend, not a temporary policy.
• Scenario 2 (strategic denial via continental attrition) is the most developed concept, leveraging defensive advantage, industrial superiority, and societal resilience.
• Europe must urgently address critical capability gaps: long-range strike, drone mass, integrated ISR, and ammunition production.
• Institutional reforms needed include a European SACEUR, sovereign ISR architecture, and binding political pre-commitment.

"The article presents three scenarios for a European conventional defense strategy assuming progressive US disengagement. Scenario 1: NATO retains limited US support—multi-domain operations under constraint. Scenario 2: US operational withdrawal but industrial access remains—strategic denial through continental attrition. Scenario 3: Complete US departure leads to regionalized defense clusters. Each scenario outlines a distinct theory of victory, command architecture, and capability requirements. The authors argue Europe must shift from consuming US concepts to producing its own military strategy. The analysis draws on the Ukraine war experience and current European rearmament trajectories."