Analysis: Semiconductor supply chain chokepoints as a deterrent to conflict over Taiwan (warontherocks.com)

• ASML's monopoly on EUV lithography machines is a key chokepoint; TSMC cannot operate without it.
• US export controls and reshoring incentives are spurring China to develop domestic alternatives, weakening the deterrent.
• The article recommends targeted controls and friendshoring over broad decoupling to preserve supply chain interdependence.

"The article argues that global semiconductor supply chains, particularly ASML's monopoly on EUV lithography, create a powerful deterrent against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan because no single country can capture the entire value chain. This "silicon testudo" of interdependent chokepoints (ASML in Netherlands, EDA software in US, specialty chemicals in Japan) prevents any aggressor from benefiting from conquest. However, US export controls and reshoring policies under the CHIPS Act are inadvertently incentivizing Chinese self-sufficiency, eroding this deterrent. The authors recommend targeted, proportionate export controls with sunset clauses and friendshoring over reshoring to preserve the deterrence structure."