HCSS Paper: Climate Change as Geopolitical Threat Multiplier This Century (hcss.nl)

• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, reshaping global power balance.
• Drought exposure could quadruple; climate migration could more than double by mid-century.
• Adaptation capacity becomes a decisive competitive factor among states.

"The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) published the paper "Intersecting Futures" analyzing climate change interactions with global trends through 2100. Authors Thijs van Aken and Laura Birkman find that climate impacts—extreme weather, resource scarcity, migration—will reshape power dynamics and economic stability. Adaptation capacity will determine winners and losers. Recommendations include prioritizing adaptation in security strategies, investing in early warning systems, strengthening international cooperation, and closing the adaptation financing gap. The paper is adapted from research for the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management."