New Quantum Computing Thresholds Lower Encryption Break Estimates (warontherocks.com)

• Two teams lower qubit thresholds for breaking encryption
• Google sets 2029 deadline for quantum-resistant encryption
• China builds extensive quantum network and invests $17.5 billion
• U.S. executive orders issued but policy remains disjointed
• Article calls for NSC-led quantum readiness strategy

"On March 30, 2026, two research teams published findings that significantly lowered the estimated qubit requirements for breaking public-key encryption. One team showed Shor's algorithm could run at cryptographically relevant scale with as few as 10,000 neutral-atom qubits. Google Quantum AI, with Stanford and the Ethereum Foundation, placed the threshold for breaking elliptic-curve encryption below 500,000 physical qubits. Google subsequently set a 2029 deadline for migrating its products to quantum-resistant encryption. The U.S. government issued executive orders in June 2026, but policy remains fragmented. China is investing heavily in quantum networks and sensing. The article advocates for central coordination under the National Security Council."