A cryptography engineer's perspective on quantum computing timelines (words.filippo.io)

• Error correction remains the primary technical bottleneck.
• Current timelines for cryptographically relevant quantum computers are receding.
• Priority must shift to standardized post-quantum algorithm adoption.

"Cryptography experts are tempering expectations regarding the timeline for fault-tolerant quantum computing. While hardware advancements continue, the transition from noisy intermediate-scale quantum devices to systems capable of breaking standard encryption remains significantly delayed by unsolved error correction bottlenecks. The consensus among security engineers is that while quantum threats to current digital infrastructure are inevitable, the 'Q-Day' horizon has receded. Organizations are urged to prioritize the transition to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) rather than anticipating immediate systemic failures in current public-key encryption standards."