Timeline of the Impending Crude Oil Crisis (brookings.edu)

• Strait of Hormuz closure reduces crude flows from 15 mb/d to 1.5 mb/d.
• Structural adjustments offset 6.4 mb/d; temporary buffers (IEA release, floating storage) provide 2.5 mb/d.
• Temporary buffers exhausted by mid-July; supply shortfall of 7.1 mb/d expected.
• Brent oil price could reach $120/barrel (June) and $150/barrel (later) if strait remains closed.

"The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted 20% of global oil supply. Structural adjustments (pipelines, surplus) and temporary buffers (emergency reserves, floating storage) have capped prices so far. Once temporary buffers are exhausted by mid-July, a supply shortfall of 7.1 mb/d (16% of global crude trade) will emerge. The authors estimate Brent prices could rise to $120/barrel by June and $150/barrel if the strait remains closed."