Hormuz Strait Stress Model: Impacts of $115 Oil (medium.com)

• Projection of $115/bbl under bottleneck stress.
• Identifies systemic fragility in European energy security.
• Threats to industrial continuity from price shocks.

"A new analytical model assesses the economic shock of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, projecting oil prices hitting $115 per barrel. The report highlights the systemic fragility of European heavy industry to disruptions in Gulf transit routes. While the EU has diversified some energy sources, the model indicates that reliance on Middle Eastern oil remains a structural security vulnerability. Escalating costs would trigger inflationary pressure and threaten the operational continuity of essential manufacturing sectors across the continent."