Historical Failure of Regime Change Operations in the Middle East: Lessons for the U.S.-Israeli Campaign Against Iran (warontherocks.com)

• Operation Epic Fury (Feb. 2026) aimed at regime change in Iran has failed.
• Historical cases show regime change often militarily successful but politically counterproductive.
• Decapitation strikes frequently trigger nationalist backlash and strengthen foes.
• Author recommends abandoning regime change and negotiating a nuclear deal.

"An analysis of historic regime change operations in the Middle East identifies recurring miscalculations that also plague the current U.S.-Israeli Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Launched in February 2026 with the goal of overthrowing the Islamic Republic, the operation has failed. The author argues that U.S. and Israeli planners conflated military power with political outcomes and relied on decapitation strikes, which historically trigger nationalist backlash and strengthen adversaries. He recommends abandoning regime change and negotiating a nuclear agreement."