14 Theses for a Realist Ecology: The Geopolitics of Energy Transition (legrandcontinent.eu)

• Energy transition unfolds amid geopolitical fragmentation, climate impacts as conflict multipliers
• China controls 60% lithium, 73% cobalt, 90% rare earth refining – strategic bottlenecks
• Europe must adopt realist stance: selective partnerships, regulatory clout, industrial resilience

"The energy transition now operates in a world of war and geopolitical fragmentation. Climate impacts act as conflict multipliers. China dominates critical mineral processing (60% lithium, 73% cobalt, 90% rare earths). Europe must pursue a realist strategy: condition Chinese market access, resist US fossil-fuel pressure, build partnerships with resource-rich countries, and leverage its regulatory power. The insurance sector is identified as an underestimated chokepoint."