U.S. Navy Columbia-class submarine rare earth processing dependency (warontherocks.com)

• Columbia-class submarines need dysprosium, neodymium, terbium for motors and stealth; China controls >90% of refining.
• China's 2010 export restrictions caused price spikes; Western response (Molycorp) failed when China flooded market.
• 2026 export controls target MP Materials and USA Rare Earth; Project Vault ($12B) and OSC loans exist but insufficient.
• Author recommends offtake commitments, loan guarantees, binding floor prices to create market for domestic processing.

"The U.S. Navy's Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines rely on rare earths processed almost exclusively in China for propulsion, stealth, and guidance systems. China controls 91% of global rare earth refining and has imposed export restrictions on U.S. military end-users, targeting companies building domestic processing capacity. The U.S. has begun responding with stockpiling and loan guarantees, but lacks sustained demand signals to attract private capital for midstream processing. Without financial mechanisms like offtake commitments, the submarine program's vulnerability remains unresolved."