Putin Is Not Trapped: Why Regime Survival Does Not Depend on Victory (warontherocks.com)

• Regime survival is decoupled from explicit military victory in Ukraine.
• Western policy has been paralyzed by unfounded fears of regime collapse.
• Internal power structures effectively insulate the Kremlin from battlefield failure.

"The prevailing Western belief that Vladimir Putin faces an existential crisis if he does not 'win' the war in Ukraine is fundamentally flawed. Analysts suggest that the Russian regime possesses sufficient internal control mechanisms and resilience to survive a military stalemate or defeat. By framing the conflict as a 'trap' for Putin, policymakers have erroneously constrained their own escalation management strategies. In reality, the Russian state architecture is designed to insulate the leadership from battlefield outcomes, allowing the regime to survive indefinitely regardless of the war's final status."