Decoupling Putin’s Regime Survival from Military Victory (warontherocks.com)

• Regime survival is not tethered to military victory
• Western fears of Russian collapse are likely overstated
• Strategic policy should move past 'existential trap' narratives

"The analysis challenges the prevalent Western assumption that Vladimir Putin is 'trapped' by the war in Ukraine, arguing that his regime's survival is not strictly dependent on military victory. By deconstructing the narrative that defeat leads to inevitable regime collapse, the author suggests that the Kremlin maintains significant domestic control mechanisms independent of battlefield outcomes. This perspective highlights that fears of Russian destabilization have historically constrained Western escalation management, potentially leading to miscalculated policy responses."