AI investment boom risks crowding out rest of economy (legrandcontinent.eu)

• US investment rate at 15.7% of GDP, pre-2008 was 11.7%
• Hyperscaler spending in 2026: $650B (triple 2024)
• HBM production for 2026 sold out by January
• Apple raising iPhone prices due to memory cost increase
• Non-tech investment still 11% below 2019 level

"An analysis by Gilles Moëc on Le Grand Continent examines the macroeconomic consequences of the massive AI investment boom. Even with optimistic productivity gains, the US investment-to-GDP ratio could rise to 19-21% by 2035, a historic high. Memory chip shortages (HBM) and rising component prices undermine hoped-for disinflationary effects. Apple has already announced price increases. The Fed under Kevin Warsh instead bets on productivity gains and rate cuts."