Russian Military Force Expansion in Ukraine Produces Diminishing Returns (warontherocks.com)

• Russia grew its deployed force in Ukraine from ~150,000 to over 700,000 by 2026 through contract recruitment and partial mobilization.
• Despite numerical advantages, Russian forces could not achieve breakthroughs due to Ukrainian drone warfare and prepared defenses.
• Force growth stalled in late 2025 as casualties offset recruitment; Moscow's high-water mark for offensive capacity may have passed.

"The Russian military expanded from ~150,000 deployed in 2022 to over 700,000 by 2026, primarily through contract recruitment rather than mobilization. Despite this growth, the ability to convert mass into breakthroughs declined due to Ukrainian drone warfare, prepared defenses, and Western precision munitions. By late 2025, force growth stalled as casualties offset recruitment. The analysis highlights that Russia's reliance on low-quality infantry assaults led to diminishing returns, and NATO planners should note the implications of a larger Russian force post-war."