HCSS analysis of global climate change impacts and adaptation trends 2025–2100 (hcss.nl)

• Geopolitical fragmentation and multipolarity hinder global climate cooperation.
• Annual adaptation financing gap of $284 billion for developing countries.
• Climate-induced migration could rise to 118 million by 2100.

"This HCSS report examines how climate change will intersect with geopolitical, economic, technological, and societal trends from 2025 to 2100. It warns that inadequate adaptation will increase the frequency and severity of climate disasters, creating new geopolitical flashpoints in the Arctic and straining global stability. Under a high-emission scenario, staple crop yields could decline by 36.6% by 2100, and climate-induced migration in South Asia, Latin America, and Africa could more than double to 118 million people. The report highlights a $284 billion annual financing gap for adaptation in developing countries and stresses that adaptive capacity will become a key determinant of power in international relations."