ECFR paper: Two scenarios for European response to US Arctic pressure over Svalbard (ecfr.eu)

• Two alternative scenarios: appeasement leads to loss of sovereignty; resistance preserves leverage
• Key tools: NB8 minilateralism, EU anti-coercion instrument, pharmaceutical export leverage
• Lessons: wedge strategies depend on European disunity; map leverage before crises

"The European Council on Foreign Relations analysis uses a 'sliding doors' method to compare two European responses to a hypothetical US challenge to the Svalbard Treaty. In the 'appease, delay, distract' scenario, accommodation leads to hollow victory and eroded regulatory power. In the 'consciously uncoupled' scenario, early solidarity and economic/regulatory leverage preserve European sovereignty at short-term cost. The author argues Europe must map leverage before the next crisis and not allow wedge strategies to succeed."