Russia’s Declining Reliance on Hydrocarbon Revenues (legrandcontinent.eu)

• Oil and gas contribution to GDP hit a post-2017 low of 13% in 2025.
• Declining hydrocarbon revenue impacts fiscal stability and domestic wage growth.
• Possible shift toward a structurally different Russian economic model.

"In 2025, the Russian oil and gas sector's contribution to GDP fell to 13%, the lowest level since 2017. Data from Rosstat confirms a steady decline throughout the year, driven by fluctuating global oil prices. This contraction directly constrains the federal budget and diminishes the broader economic 'rent' effect that traditionally supports wages and domestic industrial procurement. While this decline puts immediate pressure on public spending, the Kremlin may view the diversification forced by these conditions as a necessary long-term evolution of the Russian economic model."