Russian Economy: Heading for Near Stagnation? (legrandcontinent.eu)

• GDP growth forecast cut to 0.4% for 2026, 1.4% for 2027
• Structural causes: sanctions, labor shortages, fiscal constraints
• Budget deficit hits 5.9 trillion rubles in four months, exceeding annual target

"Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced on May 12 revised GDP growth forecasts: 0.4% in 2026 (down from 1.3%), 1.4% in 2027 (down from 2.8%), and only returning to 2.4% by 2029. The slowdown is structural, driven by sanctions, labor shortages, and reduced fiscal space. Russia's budget deficit reached 5.9 trillion rubles in the first four months, far exceeding the full-year target."