Xi Jinping's Long March: Navigating US Decline and Regional Ambition (legrandcontinent.eu)

• Operational shift from rhetoric to tactical gray-zone pressure in the Indo-Pacific.
• Domestic economic pressures (demographics, debt) acting as a constraint on aggressive policy.
• Strategic focus on supply chain insulation against US-led technology sanctions.

"Beijing operates on the 'East rising, West declining' narrative, yet balances this rhetoric with caution due to structural domestic economic fragility. While Trump's erratic policies create opportunities for China to build influence, especially in the Global South, China remains wary of overreach. Beijing is prioritizing supply chain resilience and 'gray zone' tactics in the Indo-Pacific to avoid direct kinetic conflict with the US. The period leading to 2027 remains critical, as the PLA continues its modernization while juggling internal pressures like high youth unemployment and a stagnant real estate sector."