ECFR proposes 'managed disorder' framework for post-war Europe-Russia relations after Ukraine ceasefire (ecfr.eu)

• ECFR proposes a 'managed disorder' framework for post-war Europe-Russia relations
• Five-stage plan: ceasefire, freeze, stabilize, deterrence, cooperation, institutionalize
• Europe must take lead as US focus shifts to China; Ukraine as 'steel porcupine'

"A European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) policy brief argues that after a ceasefire in Ukraine, Europe and the US will face a low-grade rivalry with Russia that requires active management. The paper outlines a staged framework—from freezing the status quo to institutionalizing arms control—to prevent escalation. It emphasizes European leadership, credible deterrence, and conditional incentives for Moscow. Alternatives like regime change or normalization are deemed riskier."