European NATO Members Face Strategic Shift at Ankara 2026 Summit (defence24.com)

• US reducing troop presence in Europe: 5,000 from Germany, cancellations for Poland, BCTs from 4 to 3.
• E5 format (France, Germany, UK, Italy, Poland) emerging as European security council.
• ELSA initiative aims to develop European long-range precision strike capability beyond 500 km.
• Defence spending target shifting to 5% of GDP; subscription model proposed for procurement.
• Over 70% of Europeans favour greater strategic autonomy, per polls.

"The July 2026 NATO summit in Ankara is expected to confirm a major shift towards European-led defence, as the US reduces its military footprint in Europe. The so-called 'Europeanisation of NATO' envisions European allies taking primary responsibility for conventional deterrence, with the US providing the nuclear umbrella. Key elements include the E5 format (France, Germany, UK, Italy, Poland), the ELSA long-range strike initiative, and defence spending increases to 5% GDP. However, internal divisions on threat perception and lack of unified political command remain obstacles."