Kremlin faces growing elite tensions and economic strain in fifth year of Ukraine war (osw.waw.pl)

• GDP contraction in Q1 2026 signals transition from stagnation to recession
• Budget deficit quadruples annual target in four months
• Putin's approval and trust ratings hit lowest since full-scale invasion

"Russia's ruling elite is increasingly fractious as economic decline, budget deficits, and military setbacks weaken Putin's grip. Western reports suggest coup fears and tightened security, but an imminent crisis remains unlikely. Structural pressures from war costs and sanctions are eroding regime stability."