OECD Projects Global Growth Below 1% in Q4 2026 if Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked (legrandcontinent.eu)

• OECD scenario shows 1.8% global growth in 2027 if war continues
• Energy price surges: Asian gas +81%, European +43% since Feb 27
• AI data center costs expected to rise due to energy price increases

"The OECD released an interim economic outlook on June 3, 2026, warning that a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push global growth below 1% in Q4 2026 and cause several major economies to enter recession in 2027. Under a rapid resolution scenario, growth is 2.8% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. A prolonged conflict would reduce growth to 2.1% and 1.8% respectively. Energy prices have already spiked, with Asian natural gas up 81% and European up 43% since late February. Inflation could reach 5.2% globally by December."