ECFR proposes 'Team Enlargement' coalition of ten EU states to drive enlargement process (ecfr.eu)

• ECFR study proposes a coalition of ten EU member states to drive enlargement, based on 25+ interviews and public opinion data.
• Three clusters identified: principled conditionalists, conditional sceptics, security maximalists; Hungary as outlier.
• Key issues: merit-based conditionality, no pre-accession funds, safeguards and reversibility, migration control.
• Recommended timetable: develop Merz's associate membership proposal by Oct 2026, secure European Council endorsement by Dec 2026, implement framework in 2027.
• German Chancellor Merz's May 2026 letter proposing associate membership for Ukraine is seen as the most viable proposal.

"The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) policy brief identifies ten EU member states that could form a 'Team Enlargement' coalition to advance the EU's next enlargement, particularly for Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans. It categorizes states into three clusters: principled conditionalists (Denmark, Germany, Sweden), conditional sceptics (Austria, France, Italy, Netherlands), and security maximalists (Lithuania, Poland), with Hungary as an outlier. The paper recommends a four-step timetable led by Germany to develop a new accession framework by 2027, addressing concerns like rule of law, migration, and fiscal impact."