Strait of Hormuz blockade strengthens Russia's oil export position (osw.waw.pl)

• Strait of Hormuz blockade reduced global oil supply by up to 15%
• Russia expanded customer base in Asia, reducing reliance on China/India
• US sanctions waivers lowered evasion costs, bolstering Russia's position
• Russian crude discount narrowed by nearly $6/barrel
• Reopening of Strait could reverse Russia's gains

"The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the Persian Gulf war reduced global oil supply by up to 15% of world trade. Russia benefited by expanding its customer base, particularly in Asia, reducing dependence on China and India. US sanctions waivers from March to June 2026 amplified these gains. The discount on Russian crude narrowed, strengthening Moscow's bargaining position. However, reopening of the Strait and increased Gulf production could reverse these advantages."