Ukraine's Intermediate-Range Strike Campaign and Mechanized Counterattacks Mark New Phase of War (understandingwar.org)

• Russia's advance rate dropped from 13.2 sq km/day (2025) to 2.9 sq km/day (2026).
• Ukraine regained net territory in late February and April 2026 for the first time since 2023.
• Ukraine struck over 107 Russian air defense systems since November 2025 and achieved drone overmatch.

"Ukraine has shifted the war into a new phase by striking Russian logistics at operational depth and conducting limited mechanized maneuvers. Russian advance rates have plummeted, and Ukraine has regained more territory than lost for the first time since 2023. Key enablers include drone supremacy, a SEAD/DEAD campaign, and the loss of Starlink for Russian forces. Ukraine has a time-limited window to exploit its advantages."